Niall
Hi,
I’ve just read that Kodak’s share price is falling on the stock market,
and indeed some shops don’t stock Kodak products anymore, all because Kodak stuck with ‘old-style’ film and didn’t embrace the digital age!!!
How long do you think the old way of developing and processing
will last!!!
Also, have you ever considered having a gallery section on this site where members can show some of their photographs, or maybe hold a competition or something!!!!
Niall
Gast
Niall,
Mr Boeddecker is from East Berlin; perhaps he doesn’t speak English because Russian was the second language taught in schools in the GDR.
I’ll try to translate this into German (using reported speech):
Mr Boeddecker,
Niall says he has read that Kodak is losing market share (I’m not entirely sure whether he might also be referring to the share price), and that some shops have now stopped selling Kodak products because Kodak continues to deal in old-fashioned films and is not moving into the digital age.
He also asks you how long, in your opinion, the traditional method of processing and developing will remain viable.
He would also like to know whether you have ever considered offering a photo gallery on your site where members could publish their photographs, or even hold a photography competition.
PS: I cannot guarantee the accuracy of my translation (though I doubt that’s necessary), so please let me know if there are any issues as soon as possible.
MirkoBoeddecker
Niall,
This forum is not intended for chatting with me.
Topics and questions should always be general in nature and addressed to all readers.
I will not answer any questions addressed directly to me.
Perhaps you might consider reposting this in a more general way, addressing all forum participants?
I hope you understand this – it is a general rule.
Imagine if I were to start responding to individual requests in a public forum – we might as well close the forum down then.
Regards,
Mirko
Niall
Sorry for the misunderstanding!
I’ll repost the question in a more general way!!!
I hope you’ll then give your opinion on the two questions, as will other people!!!
Thanks for replying to the post anyway!!!
Niall
MirkoBoeddecker
Niall,
It’s Sunday now and I’ve got some time :P
As for your question, there are hundreds of threads in German newsgroups that deal with this topic – as well as in English groups.
People tend to expect the worst and are already talking about analogue photography being dead.
But if you take a closer look, these people are usually not photographers or actually involved in the industry – rather, they are digital camera enthusiasts shouting on public internet forums.
Reputable magazines and knowledgeable authors usually conclude that analogue photography will consolidate to a certain size and then remain a niche market, whilst the mass market shifts to digital.
We can therefore expect a decline in the availability of amateur colour products very soon.
This market accounts for around 80–90% of the entire analogue market, and as it is shrinking rapidly, companies such as Kodak and Agfa are facing enormous problems.
If the black-and-white market were to decline, these companies would be affected only slightly, if at all.
This is why I would like to divide my answer into three sections.
1) Cameras
2) Amateur colour products
3) Black-and-white films and papers
Obviously, FOTOIMPEX is mainly interested in number 3.
Number 1 will probably consolidate around the highest quality and areas where digital cannot compete (e.g. large format or panoramic – try bending a chip 360 degrees – etc.) and a market made up of people who simply enjoy the feel and click of a good analogue camera. Also, don’t forget equipment sales, which are almost never captured by those statistics on the number of cameras sold. Analogue cameras are very robust and, given a certain standard of quality, can usually be expected to last a lifetime of 100 years or more.
Number 2 is likely to disappear, except in those areas where analogue has an advantage over digital (e.g. it is almost always much cheaper and often even faster).
Number 3 has not been significantly affected by digital if we look at our artists and hobby market (excluding industrial film, the graphics industry, X-rays and any other commercial use of film).
This market has been a niche since the early 1980s and certainly since all press photographers stopped using black and white when newspapers began printing in colour during the 1990s.
Since then, analogue enthusiasts have had no reason other than personal preference to engage with black and white – thus giving them no reason to stop doing so and switch to digital now.
It is a completely different experience to use film, expose it, go to the darkroom, hear the water running in the dark, smell the developer and gelatin, feel the fibre-based paper, and sense the spirit of Adams and Weston whilst you are shaking your trays.
You are actually producing a piece of art. You are using all your senses – you have control over the process, you can make mistakes, learn from them, and the whole process suddenly makes sense and can be captured by your brain simply by watching what happens.
This is not the case with digital photography. Digital photography has no smell; it is fast and efficient, and who knows what made the image appear on the screen on the other side of the camera? Electricity? Silicon sand? Elvis?
This is ideal for people who don’t care about all the background and who are perfectly satisfied to get a happy snap in seconds.
Anyone who has gone through the whole process of learning how to develop their own film, setting up a darkroom and starting to print, finally holding the dripping wet but perfect print in their hands (of a picture they took at least five hours ago) simply cannot derive this satisfaction from any instant image-producing ‘fraction of a second’ digital process.
The celebration of slowness and letting your imagination run wild – relax and think about your image; it won’t be ready for another five hours anyway. All this is important and forces you to concentrate and think before you press the shutter.
Having said all this, here is my answer to your question: “As long as there are people out there who want to buy black-and-white film, paper and chemicals, they will be available”.
The process is so simple that the entire production on a small scale could theoretically be carried out in a garage (subject to certain limitations).
It doesn’t matter whether Kodak’s share price falls or rises. This only affects Kodak’s strategic decisions regarding production planning. The same applies to Agfa, Fuji and Ilford.
And it is not even a bad sign if these companies are now spending most of their research budget on inkjet. They have to. It is a new market where they are not yet leaders. In black-and-white, they are market leaders and there is little they need to do to maintain that position. So any smart company leader will invest just enough funds to retain this position and spend the rest on becoming number one in a new future mass market.
All these so-called ‘indicators’ used by those who want to convince the world that analogue is dead are not really indicators at all if you look at them closely. Rather, they are facts that make sense as a reaction to current market realities.
And let’s be honest: who cares about 9x12 cm drugstore colour prints for 9 cents and ‘happy snap’ cameras costing 39.59?
They make up the majority of the market and will probably disappear sooner or later.
There is one important market impact, however, which will also affect black and white (I have said this several times before in this forum in German): the production volumes of the raw chemicals and base materials.
As some of these chemicals and base materials are used for both black-and-white and colour, the shrinking colour print film market will lead to price increases and a reduction in the availability of certain raw ingredients.
Consequently, some very high-tech products involving certain highly pure and complex formulations will disappear.
RC paper might eventually become more expensive than fibre-based paper (due to an increase in the base price).
But I think all these price increases are within a range that gives no one a reason to stop using them. Digital will very likely remain more expensive at all times, as it is a much more complex and costly process in general, and there are no hard facts to suggest that analogue printing should ever be more expensive than digital, provided that inkjet papers do not start using a base that simply cannot be coated with silver nitrate and gelatin (currently it is the same, except that inkjet paper has some special ingredients in the coating and – obviously – is not sensitised).
If small and flexible companies like efke and forte survive the next five years of price dumping by Agfa and Kodak, they can look forward to a very prosperous future once the big players have decided to pull out, because a market worth 900 million USD a year worldwide is peanuts to them.
They will be the suppliers of black-and-white products for the future. If they don’t make it, new factories will be built. Wherever there is demand, someone will make things happen to meet it.
Cheers,
Mirko
Gallery: too much server space required OR the image quality will be such that it cannot be taken seriously :-((
Gast
Mirko,
A lovely “Sunday reflection” and, above all, perfect timing (compulsory login). If only “Fleedwood” were to hear this…
Why can’t we just boil it down to this:
Anyone who’s into computers, or who’s keen to shift as many aspects of their life onto them as possible, should go “digital”;
Anyone who avoids computers – *where possible* – (like me) should stay analogue.
Everything else on this subject (or rather: everything I’ve read so far) isn’t conclusive, for which you’ve provided fresh evidence:
“and the whole process makes sense and can be captured by your brain by just looking at what happens.”
No one can claim to understand the EXACT process of image exposure/development, certainly not just by looking at it. Or why else do we have around 60,000 posts on this topic in the rival forum?
Ferdinand
Gast
Niall,
Sorry for writing in German here, but my post isn’t relevant to your question. I agree with Mirko; he’s right, as usual.
Happy shooting,
Ferdinand
Niall
Thank you, Mirko, for your very comprehensive answer to what I
think is a very relevant question!!!
I thought I’d ask someone with inside knowledge of the business
about this matter!!!
Yes, I agree with you – I’d like to try and develop my own black-and-white photos!!
I’ve only recently started doing it again, and I’m still struggling to understand
how to do it!!
There is something very magical about seeing your photo appear
on the paper, and the control you have over the whole process!!!
I just hope this particular art form doesn’t disappear tomorrow!!
But then again, they said newspapers would be a thing of the past
when computers arrived!!!!
Niall
